Assuming that current left fielder Raul Ibanez leaves the Seattle Mariners for greener pastures, the organization needs him to sign with a select few teams in order to fully benefit from his departure.

There was a debate going on earlier this season in regards to Raul’s future.  Some wanted to extend him, which would help the offense for the next couple of seasons.  Others wanted to trade him for any prospects available, especially prospects in the upper minor league levels.  A third group would prefer Raul walk via free agency, allowing his Type-A free agent status to give the organization two compensatory picks that could be higher impact than the prospects received in trade, but would probably take longer to develop. 

Raul will probably be offered a multi-year contract by Seattle, but I don’t believe that he’ll stick around.  There is really no reason for him to stay, especially when he sees himself playing only three more seasons.  He’s played for a ton of very bad teams with the Mariners and Royals, and has only appeared in one postseason, so I’m sure he wants to win.  Assuming that’s the case, Seattle will offer him arbitration, he’ll decline, and then he’ll sign with with another team.  Seattle will get two draft picks in return, but for Seattle to fully benefit he’ll have sign with the right team.

When a team signs a Type-A free agent they lose their first round draft pick.  That pick–as well as a supplemental first round pick (aka sandwich pick)– is given to the team from which the free agent left.  However, if the signing team is one of the first 15 teams to draft their first round pick is protected, and they only forfeit the sandwich pick and a second rounder.

For Seattle to get the most out of Raul, they need him to avoid those 15 worst teams.  Three of these teams could contend within their division next season andhave been connected to Raul within the last year or so: the Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians.  Other teams to possibly worry about are the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers, depending on what happens in their offseasons.

For Seattle to get the best possible pick Raul would have to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but it is highly unlikely that they would be interested.  Taking into account team needs, these are the teams that we should be rooting for Raul to sign with:

1.) Florida Marlins, 18th pick. 
Aaron Heilman.  No great 18th overall picks currently in the bigs.

I’m not sure how much interest there will be from either party, but I think the hometown team has to be included.  Players in the twilight of their careers tend to want to play close to home, and if that team can win it’s a big bonus.  Will the Marlins be able to win next season?  You never really know with that franchise, but they’re going to be going through another overhaul this offseason and that may not appeal to Raul.

2.) Toronto Blue Jays, 20th pick.   
Torii Hunter, CC Sabathia, Denard Span, Chad Cordero

Raul was almost sent to Toronto at the trade deadline, but the deal was nixed by the front office.  I’m not sure how much interest the Jays will have in Raul this offseason with good youngsters Adam Lind and Travis Snider switching off between DH and LF, but it’s feasible that they could seek more experience.

3.) New York Mets, 24th or 25th pick*. 
Matt Cain, Matt Garza, Joe Blanton, Chad Billingsly

The Mets were interested in Raul at the trade deadline but couldn’t work a deal.  Their situation hasn’t changed much and Raul would still be a decent fit for them offensively.

4.) Tampa Bay Rays, 29th or 30th pick*. 
Jack Cust, Jay Payton, Adam Wainwright, Carlos Quentin

There are rumors that Cliff Lee Floyd could be brought back, but if he isn’t Raul would be a perfect candidate to replace him at DH.  There were rumors/speculation that the Rays might acquire him at the trade deadline, and there could be mutual interest this offseason if there is an opening.  I think the Rays might be the best bet as they could have openings at both DH and the outfield, but would they be willing to part with the draft picks?

5.) Chicago Cubs, 31st or 32rd pick*.  
J.P. Howell, Matt Murton

There was speculation/rumors linking Raul to the Cubs last offseason, at the trade deadline, and already again this offseason.  They’d love him offensively, but– like all NL teams– it comes down to whether they’re willing to suffer through his defensive woes.

*Depends on whether or not Seattle signs Josh Fields.  If they don’t, Seattle gets the 22nd pick.  If they do, every team after 22 gets bumped up.

Of the “good teams,” I think the Rays, Mets and Blue Jays are the best bets to sign Raul at this point.   This will be something to keep an eye on this offseason.

For the complete draft order, go here.