Most Seattle Mariners fans can agree that Adrian Beltre is one of the most valuable players the team has, but I’ve noticed that many baseball fans of other teams don’t see this, and often lump Beltre in with Richie Sexson while talking about how the organization blew it on those two contracts that offseason.  We also found out what people employed within the game felt about Beltre when general managers and beat writers alike gawked at Seattle’s asking price for him back at the trade deadline. 

Beltre is completely underrated everywhere except in Seattle Mariners circles. 

No, he is not in the same category as Sexson.  Sexson had one season where he did what the Mariners brought him in to do, one season that was borderline acceptable from him, and then he fell off a cliff and failed to be a useful major leaguer on offense and defense, all at around $14M per season.  Beltre had one disappointing season offensively in 2005, but soon reverted back to his career averages and showed steady improvement each year, not to mention he’s one of the top three defensive third basemen in all of baseball and a Gold Glove winner.  Sexson was a bust; Beltre has earned his money.

And no, interim GM Lee Pelekoudas wasn’t asking too much in return from other teams at the deadline.  Teams like the Minnesota Twins were treating a potential Beltre trade as a salary dump.  They, like the baseball fans outside of Seattle, thought of Beltre as a bust and probably assumed Pelekoudas would be more than happy to dump Beltre’s contract on them for nothing in return.  But, once again, Beltre is no bust.  He’s a an absolute stud, but no one outside of Seattle has noticed.

Beltre’s numbers are solid.  He’s got a vital line of .262/.325/.458, is walking more than he ever has since joining Seattle, and is a safe bet to eclipse the 26 homers he hit last year while striking out less.  Those numbers alone give him one of his better offensive seasons as a Seattle Mariner, but if it weren’t for two uncontrollable factors he might get more of the recognition he deserves. 

One of these factors is luck, and Beltre’s bad luck is undoubtedly something that is keeping him from having another breakout season.  If you’ve been watching the games you’ve surely noticed Beltre squaring the ball up more often than not, only to hit it right at someone.  This is bad luck, and there are numbers that help prove it.  Beltre’s 2008 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play, excluding home runs) is sitting at .273, his lowest BABIP since 2003.  In his first three years with Seattle Beltre had BABIPs of .284, .296 and .297.  The sharp dropoff from previous BABIP totals and this year suggest that Beltre isn’t getting as many hits as he deserves, and the visual evidence only backs that up and further suggests that a lot of those missing hits would have gone for extra bases.  Him hitting for the cycle last night and the rest of the numbers he’s been putting up lately are what he produces when his luck is closer to normal.

The other factor is Safeco Field.  The left field side of the park is so cavernous that it eats right handed power hitters for breakfast, only to be conquered by Alex Rodriguez and Edgar Martinez, two of the greatest right handed hitters the game has seen in the last 20 years and beyond, Bret Boone, who had some help, and Richie Sexson, who couldn’t sustain the success.

Beltre hasn’t been able to do much in his home ballpark, and has done most of his producing on the road.  In fact, if Beltre’s home splits matched what he did on the road he would be hitting just short of .300 with 30 homers and over 100 RBI on September 2, numbers that would certainly get him mentioned as one of baseball’s top all around third basemen. 

Safeco Field has been nothing but a frustration for Beltre.  He’s hitting just .252/.307/.413 there in 299 career games.  Some think that the ballpark may be getting into his head, causing him to alter his gameplan when playing at home.  A similar thing was said to have happened to Mike Cameron, another right handed power hitter who’s dramatic home/away splits while playing with Seattle show how much production the ballpark stole from him.

Beltre, as most of you know, battles through injury after injury.  He doesn’t like to sit, and therefor rarely tells the trainers or media of his injuries, but is almost always in some sort of pain.  He’s been playing with a torn ligament in his thumb that barks at him with every swing of the bat, and a history of hamstring and ankle problems as well.  Since he is able to continue playing at such a high level I would consider this an asset, but playing hurt could very well be another reason why he isn’t getting the numbers he deserves.

Beltre is one of the games best third basemen, and there really is no question about it.  Even with the bad luck, nagging injuries and massive home ballpark, Beltre is only rivaled by Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, David Wright and Evan Longoria among MLB third basemen when combining runs created offensively and runs saved defensively, according to this chart.

Some lucky team will sign Beltre after the 2009 season, possibly to a more affordable deal than he’s currently playing on, and will end up with an absolute bargain as they’ll probably end up with a player closer to the 2004 Beltre than the 2005 version.  He’s is flying low under the radar, but every team would be lucky to have Adrian Beltre wearing their colors.

[photo source]