Trading Game: Adrian Beltre
by Jon Shields ~ July 2nd, 2008
While there are much more obvious players to trade, Seattle could come to a point within the next month where they’re considering dealing third baseman Adrian Beltre.
Before I go any further I’d like to mention that I’m a huge Beltre fan. Possibly my favorite current Mariner, I love the passion he brings to the field, the toughness he exhibits and the Gold Glove defense, not to mention the “happy feet” and entertaining check swings. He’s also been one of Seattle’s most productive hitters, and is showing more and more pop every year since signing a mega-contract once considered a huge bust.
Over the last season or so I thought that the Mariners would be smart to extend Beltre at some point over the next season and a half, maybe to the tune of $9-10M per. He’s still in the prime of his career and would certainly be a big part of Seattle’s offense and defense for years to come.
Unfortunately, as someone pointed out to me, Beltre is a Scott Boras client, meaning Seattle will not have a chance to extend him and he’ll test the free agent market at the end of his contract.
So, what does Seattle do? They could let him play out the duration of his contract and try and re-sign him as a free agent. But what if he puts up another monster contract year like he did in 2004 or if the third baseman market is slim? Then Seattle ends up overpaying yet again. Maybe Seattle could let him play out the contract and let him walk so that they could pick up the compensatory draft picks; that’s another way to rebuild.
Or you can trade him. Beltre’s been scuffling this season (except in the home run department), but he’s starting to heat up, and contending teams in need of third base help, offensively and defensevly, will come calling.
At present time there only appears to be two matches for Beltre, though injuries could create more trade opportunities. The Los Angeles Dodgers have had interest in Beltre off and on ever since he left them via free agency. As you probably know, their third base situation has been a mess all season with a series of injuries to various players. The other team that could make a play is the Oakland A’s, according to Ken Rosenthal.
Trading Beltre to the A’s would be an intriguing scenario. In theory, such a move would only hurt Seattle through the 2009 season, a stretch of time that the Mariners aren’t expected to contend. Meanwhile Seattle gets to take away some of the A’s minor league talent that they’ve been stockpiling recently, and they certainly have a few players to be coveted.
It seems to me that in this case it would be safe to deal within the division, with equal potential for either team winning, losing, or breaking even. Now, I wonder what kind of package Seattle could receive for Beltre. I’ll continue looking for some similar past situations to try and determine a possible price and update this later. In the meantime, what do you all think of Beltre? Should Seattle trade him now, trade him later, let him walk after 2009, try and re-sign him after 2009, or what?
11 Responses to Trading Game: Adrian Beltre
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1 July 2nd, 2008 at 1:34 pm
From Ryan Divsh chat:
Justin: Any truth to the rumor: Beltre to either the Oakland A’s, or LA Dodgers?
Ryan Divish: It’s no secret, that Beltre wants to go back to Southern California. He lives there and he would gladly return.
I can’t see the A’s taking on his salary for the next year and a half.
The Dodgers have Andy LaRoche and Blake DeWitt, both of whom are supposed to be talented prospects.
But if you could get one of the more talented younger prospects on the Dodgers, say Matt Kemp, or James Loney and maybe some mid-level guys, I’d do it. Because there is no way Beltre resigns with the MAriners when his contract is up.
This backs up what JAC said a while ago on how there is no way Beltre resigns here.
2 July 2nd, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Good call. I would be estatic to get someone like Loney. We’ll see.
3 July 20th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
The Dodgers are not going to trade either Matt Kemp or James Loney for Adrian Beltre. Matt Kemp is potentially the best player in baseball in two years. James Loney wiill average .300 and 20 home runs or more a year for his major league career. and the Dodgers know it. The Dodgers could possibly give up outstanding double A pitcher James McDonald, Blake Dewitt or Andy Laroche, Delwyn Young, and pitcher John Meloan who should be a reliever and not a starter, but that might not be enough for the Mariners. I would take Dewitt before Laroche. He is only 22 and is outstanding defensively with a chance to hit to 280 or more and possibly as many as 20 home runs a year, but maybe not in Safeco field. James McDonald is a young Dave Stewart. Meloan could be an oustanding closer in a year or two.
4 July 20th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
I laugh at you calling Matt Kemp potentially the best player in two years. I’ll make a bold prediction right now and say that he won’t even be the best player in his division, maybe even on his own team.
I have heard a lot about Andy LaRoche, but he seems to be one of those players who will never live up to potential. He’s shown flashes of brilliance in the minors, but has never been able to stay up with the big club.
5 July 20th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
LaRoche hasn’t really had a chance to stay up with the big club. He was going to be their 3B this year but had a bad thumb injury, I believe.
As far as Kemp goes, he does have a ton of talent but how can anyone expect him to be greater than the Hanley Ramirez’s, Alex Rodriguez’s etc etc. That’s not the point anyway. The point is that the Dodgers wouldn’t give up both Kemp and Loney in the same trade, which would be dumb of them, but I do think Seattle could squeeze one out.
Or maybe not, but Seattle’s price is fairly high so they’d at least be asking for one. The Dodgers have a lot of young guys, including ones not mentioned here, that I’d be happy to have as Mariners.
6 July 21st, 2008 at 12:52 am
Matt Kemp hit ..342 in half of the season last year. Nobody in baseball runs from first to third faster than he does. He has a tremendous arm. I’ve been following the Dodgers closely for 50 years and Matt Kemp is physically the most talented player than have ever had, even more so than Tommy Davis in the 60’s who I saw as a 20 year-old kid in Spokane in 1959. But it is potential right now. He might not ever come close to reaching his potential. Willie Davis who played with Tommy Davis in Spokane and with the Dodgers never reached his potential, despite having a pretty good major league career.
General Manager Ned Colletti could possibly include Kemp or Loney in a package for Beltre, most likely Kemp, but it would be a mistake. Frankly, the Mariners should keep Beltre. He is the best position player they have and he is only 29 and should get better.
The Dodgers have a lot of young talent but other than those on the major league team, most of it is in Class A and rookie ball.
The Dodgers best pitching prospect is 20 year old left hander Clayton Kershaw who the Dodgers won’t trade. The second best prospect is left hander Scott Elbert who is almost as good also at class AA Jackonsville, even though he is coming off arm surgery and missed almost the entire season last year. But James McDonald is their third best pitching prospect and would probably be available in a deal for Beltre.
Blake DeWitt is a better prospect than than Andy LaRoche, although LaRoche could possibly have a good career with the right team. Still I would rather have DeWitt who is at least two years younger.
A great outfield prospect for the Dodgers is Andrew Lambo, 6-3, 190, a left hander all the way who is not yet 20. He is having a very solid season for Great Lakes in the Class A Midwest League. He is hitting .291 with 12 home runs, 64 RBIs and 26 doubles. He could be in the majors by the end of next year. I hope the Dodgers don’t trade him, but if I was a team like Seattle, I would want him in any trade, assuming the Dodgers would not give up Kemp.
The Dodgers have another intriguing prospect in the California league in Carlos Santana, 5-11, 175, who is about 22. He is having a breakout season in 2008 and leads all minor leaguers in RBIs with 92. He is batting .315 with 14 home runs, 32 doubles and 4 triples. He was an outfielder who has was converted to catcher last year. He has 16 errors this year. This is his best year by far. So it is hard to say if he is a great prospect, but he coulde be.
But the Mariners are probably counting on Jeff Clement as their catcher of the future, although he could be moved to first base.
The Dodgers have a lot of other prospects the Mariners would be interested in. But they might not be willing to take a chance on these younger players.
For the Dodgers, I think Beltre is the best player available that they could get without giving up somebody they might be sorry for, unless the Mariners would insist on Kemp. Colletti might give in, but owner Frank McCourt might overrule him like he recently did in the CC Sabathia sweepsteaks who the Dodgers purportedly had, but McCourt nixed the deal.
But the Mariners better thing twice about trading Beltre unless somebody like the Dodgers will overpay for him. .
7 July 21st, 2008 at 1:07 am
I wasn’t knocking Kemp, and I believe he’ll be an elite player, it’s just really hard to get away with calling one of your players “potentially the best player in baseball in two years” without sounding a little bias. He’s gonna be great, and Seattle would be more than lucky to get him.
I am with you that I think Seattle should try their hardest to keep Beltre, and he’s gotten better every single year since signing with them, but he is a Scott Boras client, meaning that he won’t negotiate an extension, so instead of risking having another team sweep him away in free agency Seattle would rather trade him. And luckily for the fans and organization, Seattle appears to be pricing Beltre high, even though most people seem to be underrating him tremendously.
Last I read LA isn’t interested in Beltre anyway. I’m about to do a little blurb post on it. Thanks for the info, though.
8 July 21st, 2008 at 1:29 am
I agree with what you say about Kemp. He has a long ways to go before he is among the top 5 in baseball.
I too read in the the LA Times article today about the Dodger’s not being interested in Beltre. Maybe Seattle is asking too much, insisting on Kemp and 4 or 5 others. I know they don’t like dealing with Scott Boras. I thought the Dodgers made a big mistake 4 years ago by not resigning him.
The Dodgers should be interested in Beltre, but again I would not give up Kemp and others. But he is the best player available to them and could help them the most. And they have enough other outstanding prospects to satisfy Seattle, if they are reasonable.
But if I were the Dodgers, I would not make any trade without first agreeing on a 3 or 4 year contract extension with Beltre. Without a contract extension, next year he could have the kind of year he had 4 years ago for the Dodgers and then Boras would be asking for 20 million a year for 6 or 7 years.
The Mariners really should keep him unless a team is going to over pay for him with 4 to 6 very good prospects, including two outstanding pitching prospects.
The bigggest problem for the Dodgers is their GM Ned Colletti. He is a nice guy, but he just is not very good. For him not to even be interested in Beltre is a perfect example. Like I say, there is nobody in major league baseball who could help them more and is more affordable than Beltre unless the Mariners are just totally unreasonable which maybe they are.
9 July 21st, 2008 at 1:38 am
We’ll see how this plays out.
By the way, Beltre reportedly has no interest in staying with Seattle after his contract expires, which sucks. He is easily our 2nd best offensive player and our best defensive player. But that’s the reason Seattle is looking to trade him. I forgot to mention that before.
10 July 21st, 2008 at 1:53 am
It could be because he does not like Safeco field. It might also be because he does not see the Mariners getting much better any time soon. He might also want to get back to the national league.
If the Mariners have very little chance of resigning him, it would be in their best interest to get rid of him now and not wait until next year. But they got to be reasonable, but at the same time still get a team to overpay for him. Asking for a player like Matt Kemp or James Loney and 3 or 4 outstanding prospects is not reasonable because the past 4 years Beltre has been a good player, but not a great player.
The players I named from the Dodgers farm system are very good prospects, but the Mariners would have to insist on players like James McDonald and Andrew Lambo and Blake DeWitt. Throw in Carlos Santana and Delwyn Young and that would be a very good trade for the Mariners. It would be a lot for the Dodgers to give up, but nobody would make them better this year faster than Beltre would. But as I say, they would have to agree on a contract extension and with Scott Boras, it might not be possible.
11 July 21st, 2008 at 9:27 am
I previously said, “For the Dodgers, I think Beltre is the best player available that they could get without giving up somebody they might be sorry for.” Unfortunately, if the Dodgers gave up James McDonald and Andrew Lambo, they might well be sorry unless Beltre reverted to having seasons like he did 4 years ago. They could also be sorry giving up 22 year old Dewitt unless Beltre became closer to the player he was 4 years ago than the player he has been the last 4 years, as I say a good player but not a great player.
But maybe the Mariners would be more interested in players in another organization. Still they have to be reasonable because Beltre has not been a great player the last 4 years, although he has been good.