A look at why it may make sense, despite Seattle’s current position in the AL West, and an indication of how much it would cost.

There has been a lot of talk about Ken Griffey Jr. returning to the Seattle Mariners ever since the Reds rolled into town for interleague play last season.  There hasn’t been much attention paid to such a scenario on this site, mostly because there were better available options for Seattle to pursue.  That is still the case, but it seems that acquiring Griffey could make sense on a few levels. 

First off, adding Junior to the lineup would almost certainly boost Seattle’s overall performance, even if he is struggling this season.  He would give Seattle another lefty power bat to go along with Raul Ibanez and Jeff Clement, allowing manager John McLaren to bat lefties at the 3, 5 and 7 spots in the lineup.  A Griffey acquisition would also improve the team by forcing Richie Sexson into a platoon.  Sexson’s batting average against lefties is 192 points higher than it is against righties.  If Griffey was brought in and inserted into the outfield it would slightly improve the Mariner defense at two positions.  Ibanez is a liability in the outfield, while Sexson has zero range at first base, so pushing Ibanez to first and Sexson to DH with Griffey in the outfield would turn a few base hits into outs.

Since there are other trade targets that would outperform Griffey on bothsides of the ball, he has to bring more to the table to make a trade worthwhile.  With Safeco Field attendance at an all time low, bringing back Seattle’s first superstar would put a few more butts in the seats, at least initially.  Even if Seattle misses the playoffs with Griffey, the revenue from boosted attendance would certainly come in handy later on.

The final reason Griffey would make sense for the Mariners is price.  The playoffs are quickly slipping away from Seattle and some believe they’re already out of it, so why spend a bunch of top prospects on a Jason Bay or Garrett Atkins type player?  Since luck may be as much a factor as an impact bat when it comes to making the playoffs this season, trading away Jeff Clement, Wladimir Balentien or any of the top 5-10 prospects probably doesn’t make much sense.

Some think nabbing Griffey would require such prospects, but I think he’d come fairly cheap for several reasons.  He’s 38 years old, he’s in the last year of his contract, he’s blocking Jay Bruce, he’s been struggling this season, he’s beyond injury prone, he’s no longer a valuable defender, he’s got a no-trade clause, he’s under a new GM that has no problem moving him and so on. 

Here are a couple of trades that went down in recent years that could be comparable to a potential Griffey swap:

November 10, 2006 - The New York Yankees trade Gary Sheffield for pitching prospects Anthony Claggett, Humberto Sanchez and Kevin Wheland.  Sheffield was 38 years old and still productive.  In 2005 he posted a line of .291/.379/.512 and in an injury shortened 2006 he put up a line of .298/.355/.450 (151 ABs). 

At the time of the trade Sanchez was a former top-10 prospect for Detroit but extremely injury prone.  Sanchez had Tommy John surgery just a few months after the trade, hinting that Detroit knew he wouldn’t hold up and would be safe to trade.  Claggett and Wheland were both pretty good reliever prospects for Detroit.

August 6, 2004 - The Colorado Rockies trade Larry Walker to the St. Louis Cardinals for Luis Martinez, Chris Narveson and Jason Burch.  Walker, 37 at the time, put up a 2003 line of .289/.424/.589, and .324/.464/.630 before the trade (108 ABs).

Martinez, 24 at the time of trade, had one good season and a great K/9 ratio going for him, but not a lot else.  He was awful in 2004 pre-trade and even worse afterwards.  Narveson was a lot like the aforementioned Sanchez; a former top prospect that couldn’t stay healthy.  Burch can strike some guys out, but was never thought of very highly.  The reliever has yet to make it to the big leagues.

I believe that Sheffield and Walker are very comparable to Griffey.  Like Griffey, Sheffield and Walker were in their late 30s, still productive, injury prone and had no-trade clauses, though Griffey’s 2007 stat line of .277/.372/.496 and the .244/.317/.378 that he has put up through 127 ABs this year actually show him to be significantly worse offensively.

So what would it take to bring Griffey back to Seattle?  I don’t know the ins and outs of the Cincinnati Reds organization, but I am aware that they are desperately seeking catching depth.  Seattle’s top four options at catcher are Jeff Clement (MLB), Kenji Johjima (MLB), Adam Moore (AA) and Rob Johnson (AAA). 

Clement probably isn’t an option.  He’s not untouchable, but trading him for Griffey would likely result in the worst trade in Seattle Mariners history, probably even worse than the Lowe/Varitek for Slocumb disaster back in 1997.  Clement could realistically outproduce Griffey next season, so let’s take him out of the equation for now. 

There has been speculation throughout the season that a Johjima-for-Griffey deal could work, but his situation is a bit of a mystery.  He received a 3 year/$24M extension out of no where on April 25th, despite being one of the worst hitting starters in all of baseball.  There is still no clear-cut answer as to why he was extended.  One theory suggests that the Japanese ownership ordered the extension because of Johjima’s status in Japan.  Another theory is that he was extended to make him easier to trade.  The Mariners may be hinting that Johjima is available, however, as Johjima’s name was not in the lineup after manager John McLaren was quoted as saying, “We’ve reached the stage where I’m going to use the best nine guys I can to win the game.”  If he’s not in the lineup for Saturday’s game then it may be safe to say that the Jeff Clement era has officially started.  Such a development would only make the extension more mysterious.  Either way, his poor performance and high salary could be difficult to trade. 

Adam Moore has been quickly moving up the organizational depth chart and is now considered a top-10 prospect.  He’s solid behind the plate and projects as a vintage Michael Barrett.  Moore’s availability is determined by what the organization is planning for Johjima and Clement.  If the Mariners see Clement as the catcher in 2012, then Moore can be traded.  If Clement spends the next three years playing first base, Moore will probably be needed.

Rob Johnson has come up in countless trade rumors and speculation, but does not have the value of the three previously mentioned catchers.  He’s the best defensively of the group, but is a weak hitter.  Cincinnati could be interested, but it would take a lot more to get a deal done.

I’m not about to suggest any specific trades, because there is no way of knowning what Mariners GM Bill Bavasi and Reds GM Walt Jocketty could agree on, but I think it’s safe to say that Jocketty would like a catcher and, like all clubs, pitching. 

I’d like to think that Phillipe Aumont and Juan Ramirez are untouchable, but you never know.  Everyone else should be fair game, even pitchers as highly regarded as Doug Fister (if it takes that much for Griffey).  With Aaron Harrang firmly entrenched as Cincinnati staff ace, young studs Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez already in the rotation and Homer Bailey knocking on the door, perhaps the Reds would be looking at some of Seattle’s top pitchers in the lower levels.  Highly ranked A-ballers such as Michael Pineda and Nathan Adcock could come into the conversation.  Once again, it’s impossible to figure out exactly what combination of players Cincinnati might be interested in.

Bringing Ken Griffey back to Seattle would help the team on the field and the business side of things without devastating the farm system, making such a deal worthwhile (in my opinion).  Now, if Seattle keeps freefalling Griffey may choose to reunite with Lou Pinella in Chicago or go to another club with a better shot at contending, but that’s for another day.